So here we are at the end of an exciting tournament (congratulations Spain!), and an exciting Sophisticated Prediction Contest. Those that used the Excel spreadsheet will have noticed that the final outcome of the SophCon was still in the balance before the final, with one winner in case of a Spain win, and a different winner in case of a Spain win. In the end it was La Roja, so, without further ado, here are the final SophCon standings:
Drum roll…
Congrats to Achim Zeileis and his bookmaker-based prediction! Maybe those bookies know a thing or two about predicting football matches…A shout out to OPTA, just a handful of decimal points off first place (would have won with an England win), and to Fantomen for rounding off the podium.
Would the standings have looked different with a different scoring system? Here are the standings based on the Brier score:
Top 3 unchanged, some reshuffling in the middle.
And here are the standings based on Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS)
Now Opta takes first place, and Keanu makes it onto the podium. Almost everyone better than Agnostic based on RPS.
Finally, a rank of ranks:
Bookmaker consensus on top, Opta second, Keanu sneaks into third place. You are welcome to use the system that makes your predictions look the most accurate!
Finally, here is a link to the master spreadsheet, in case you want to analyze the results further.
Thanks again to all for participating, and see you at the next SophCon!
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